Segwit2x Game Theory Scenarios Part 1

Current Situation

  • November 2015 — Pieter Wuille presents the Segwit proposal
  • February 2017 — Shaolinfry proposes UASF
  • March 2017 — UASF becomes BIP148
  • May 2017 — NYA is signed
  • July 22, 2017 — BIP91 goes into effect
  • August 24 — Segwit activates

Scenario 1: 2x is abandoned

Scenario 2: Core capitulation

Scenario 3: 2x miners honest, no attack

  • November 15, 2017 — Block 494784 splits to 1X and 2X. Initially, 1X has 100 minute blocks, 2X has 11 minute blocks on average. 1X and 2X have the exact same difficulty.
  • November 24, 2017 — Block 495936 is mined on 2X. 1X continues to have 100 minute blocks, 2X now has 10 minute blocks. 2X is now 9% easier to mine than 1X.
  • February 3, 2018 — Block 495936 is mined on 1X. Difficulty retargets downward by a factor of 4. 1X has 25 minute blocks, 2X continues to have 10 minute blocks. 1X is 3.6 times easier to mine than 2X.
  • March 10, 2018 — Block 497952 is mined on 1X. Difficulty retargets downward by a factor of 2.5. 1X has finally adjusted enough to mine 10 minute blocks, 2X continues to have 10 minute blocks. 1X is 9 times easier to mine than 2X.
  1. Price follows Hash Power — The price of B2X coins goes up a lot (around 36x), the price of B1X coins goes down a lot (around 1/36) or some combination thereof.
  2. Hash Power follows Price — Hash power moves from B2X to B1X (Something like 75% of total hash power moves from B2X to B1X)
  3. Massive Dollar Injection — B2X is bought with outside money and causes it to go up (around 36x), B1X is short sold with outside money and causes it to go down (around 1/36 of before) or some combination thereof.
  4. Massive Hash Power Injection — New hash power is brought into B1X.

Conclusion

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Bitcoin Educator, Developer and Entrepreneur. Book: https://amzn.to/2RSlnTb PGP Fingerprint: C1D7 97BE 7D10 5291 228C D70C FAA6 17E3 2679 E455

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